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Math & statistics

Poisson event probability

Poisson event probability with an explained formula, a worked example and checks for invalid or unsupported inputs.

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How it works

P(X=k) = e^−λ × λ^k / k!, evaluated using logarithms.

Input definitions

Mean events per interval (0–1000)
Enter the value in the labeled unit.
Event count (0–2000)
Enter the value in the labeled unit.

A worked example

Mean events per interval (0–1000)
2
Event count (0–2000)
3
0.18044704431548356

Assumptions & limits

Independent arrivals at a constant average rate; exact-count probability only. Extreme tails can underflow.

Sources & review

Maintained by AnsRio. Methods and examples use automated checks; this does not imply independent professional certification.

Method updated 2026-10-17. Content checked against the stated method and examples. Our verification approach.

Common questions

When should I use Poisson instead of binomial?

Poisson models a count of independent arrivals in a fixed interval with a constant mean rate. Binomial models successes in a fixed number of independent trials with a fixed success probability.

Why can statistical results differ between tools?

Denominator, interpolation and boundary conventions can differ. Use the method and assumptions on this page to compare the same definition; displayed decimals may also be rounded.

How does the Poisson event probability tool work?

P(X=k) = e^−λ × λ^k / k!, evaluated using logarithms.

What are the assumptions and limits of Poisson event probability?

Independent arrivals at a constant average rate; exact-count probability only. Extreme tails can underflow.

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